Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:11:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b57…84eb sports 285 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$197 (+2%) realized +$274 · open −$77
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%112W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$306
7 days+$324
14 days+$284
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$176
other 21% +$286
weather 2% +$1
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +46.8% +32.8% 62% 62% +40.2%
≤30d 19 +23.6% +11.8% 53% 53% +27.9%
≤90d 208 -7.8% -16.6% 35% 34% -14.3%
all 283 +5.0% -5.0% 40% 39% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 39% -7.6%
10% -14.1% 39% -16.4%
15% -22.4% 39% -24.5%
20% -30.0% 36% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$28 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$274
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses112 / 171
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions2
Markets (closed)283 / 285
History coverage111d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 26¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-51%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Algeria 38¢ 12¢ $75 $24 −$51 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $61 +$46 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$77 +152%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$20 +65%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 +$74 +146%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$75 +365%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $41 +$43 +105%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $41 −$40 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$71 +140%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $40 +$26 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $25 +$42 +165%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$28 +70%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $29 −$29 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $17 −$17 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $7 +$10 +134%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado May 21 $11 −$11 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Zdenek Kolar May 20 $38 +$62 +163%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) May 17 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 17 $26 −$25 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 17 $81 −$80 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $10 +$49 +474%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 16 $41 +$59 +146%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $20 −$19 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $60 +$52 +86%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5) May 09 $61 +$50 +83%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $50 −$49 -99%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $56 −$55 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 06 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) May 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $40 +$24 +60%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $61 +$93 +152%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr May 03 $36 −$35 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $51 1h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $76 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $61 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $51 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 27h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $41 33h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $41 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 33h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 33h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $40 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $25 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $29 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $20 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $20 8d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 23¢ $17 23d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado BUY Coleman Wong 27¢ $11 32d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 42¢ $7 32d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 18¢ $20 32d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 17¢ $20 32d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 28¢ $41 32d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 27¢ $50 33d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Zdenek Kolar BUY Coleman Wong 38¢ $16 33d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Zdenek Kolar BUY Coleman Wong 38¢ $12 33d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Zdenek Kolar BUY Coleman Wong 38¢ $10 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.22 · official $48.22 (match) · 622 history records