Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:05:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b5d…6fc1 politics 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$16
politics 29% −$12
sports 13% +$5
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 74 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 105 -1.0% -10.4% 9% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 5% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage133d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $315 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $244 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $223 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $243 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $281 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 23 $247 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $262 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $290 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $976 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $282 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $282 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $213 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $769 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $272 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $252 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $267 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $276 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $269 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $206 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 17 $237 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $245 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $189 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $253 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 12 $229 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $245 $0 -0%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $266 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $196 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $226 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 08 $798 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $314 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $285 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 06 $256 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $29 2h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $29 3h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 10h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 24h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 42h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 2d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $45 9d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $45 9d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $45 9d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $244 26d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $244 26d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $227 26d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $227 26d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $223 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $223 27d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $219 27d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $219 27d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 28d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $243 29d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $281 29d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $281 29d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $247 31d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $247 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 332 history records