Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7B 0x7b5e…4e0c sports 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,384 (-16%) realized −$2,508 · open +$124
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%55W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$147est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$3,374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,574
7 days−$2,240
14 days−$2,240
30 days−$2,240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$2,026
other 20% −$135
world 2% −$298
economics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -42.8% -48.2% 37% 37% -47.9%
≤30d 27 -42.8% -48.2% 37% 37% -47.9%
≤90d 114 -15.0% -23.1% 48% 48% -29.8%
all 114 -15.0% -23.1% 48% 48% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 48% -29.8%
10% -30.5% 47% -36.5%
15% -37.2% 42% -42.6%
20% -43.4% 33% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$104 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$3,374
Realized−$2,508
Unrealized+$124
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses55 / 59
Est. fees paid−$147
Open positions13
Markets (closed)114 / 127
History coverage93d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 17¢ $250 $408 +$158 (+63%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 59¢ 58¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 58¢ 57¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $300 $296 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 41¢ 40¢ $300 $296 −$4 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $250 $294 +$44 (+18%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 50¢ $300 $291 −$9 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $250 $191 −$59 (-24%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+32%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $182 +$108 +60%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $75 −$73 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $182 −$180 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $182 −$180 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $183 −$180 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $183 −$180 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $183 −$180 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $183 −$180 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $182 +$76 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $364 +$246 +67%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $181 +$50 +27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $365 −$360 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $365 −$360 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $182 −$180 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $182 +$133 +73%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $182 −$180 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $182 −$180 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $181 +$62 +34%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $182 +$123 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $182 −$180 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $182 −$180 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $182 −$180 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $124 +$52 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $253 +$144 +57%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $126 −$123 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $254 −$250 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $122 +$93 +76%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 16 $58 +$33 +57%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5) May 16 $58 +$44 +76%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: Both Teams t May 16 $125 +$107 +86%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $58 −$57 -98%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score May 09 $58 −$57 -99%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 09 $125 −$123 -99%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score May 09 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $58 −$57 -99%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Score May 09 $59 +$29 +50%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $125 −$123 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 06 $59 +$33 +57%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 06 $359 +$122 +34%
Juventus FC vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 3.5 May 05 $119 +$68 +57%
Juventus FC vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to Score May 03 $119 −$118 -99%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 May 03 $58 +$32 +55%
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 May 03 $58 +$42 +73%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $118 +$51 +44%
Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $58 +$48 +83%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $56 +$81 +146%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 22 $56 +$86 +154%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 20 $118 −$118 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 Apr 20 $118 +$76 +65%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $118 +$90 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $305 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $304 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $304 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $305 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $305 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $305 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $304 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $304 1h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $75 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $182 21h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $182 21h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $183 21h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $183 21h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $183 21h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $183 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $182 21h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $365 45h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 78¢ $181 45h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $365 45h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $182 45h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $364 45h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $182 45h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $182 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $182 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $182 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $182 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $182 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $182 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $182 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $181 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,373.84 · official $3,374.07 (match) · 322 history records