Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b61…1a37 other 32 markets active 12h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$18 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate30%8W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days+$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$249
sports 25% +$267
crypto 2% −$11
weather 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +19.9% +8.5% 30% 22% -8.9%
≤30d 27 +15.5% +4.5% 30% 19% -9.0%
≤90d 27 +15.5% +4.5% 30% 19% -9.0%
all 27 +15.5% +4.5% 30% 19% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 19% -9.0%
10% -5.5% 11% -17.7%
15% -14.6% 11% -25.7%
20% -23.0% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$21 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses8 / 19
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)27 / 32
History coverage36d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 76¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+34%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 50¢ 45¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$302 +1469%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 $0 +1%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $53 +$84 +159%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $56 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 −$1 -18%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 11 $2 $0 -14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1 $0 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $1 $0 -28%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1 $0 +6%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 20 $4 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 12h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 29h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 29h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 30h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 31h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 2d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 2d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.23 · official $22.23 (match) · 125 history records