Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b62…1fe9 sports 126 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-1%) realized −$14 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate41%49W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$64
14 days−$183
30 days−$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$223
other 5% −$81
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -8.1% -16.9% 36% 18% -21.3%
≤30d 119 -10.5% -19.1% 41% 29% -14.3%
≤90d 119 -10.5% -19.1% 41% 29% -14.3%
all 119 -10.5% -19.1% 41% 29% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 29% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 22% -22.5%
15% -33.9% 13% -30.0%
20% -40.4% 7% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses49 / 70
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions7
Markets (closed)119 / 126
History coverage20d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers New York Yankees 37¢ 34¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-9%)
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 62¢ 56¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals 46¢ 52¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 68¢ 64¢ $11 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Texas Rangers 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 55¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners 39¢ 36¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 60¢ 68¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ 8¢ $30 $4 −$26 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $315 −$48 -15%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $20 −$1 -6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $21 −$5 -24%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $21 −$8 -40%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $31 −$10 -32%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $10 −$2 -16%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $10 −$2 -23%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $20 +$10 +52%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $10 −$3 -28%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $36 +$1 +4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $20 +$2 +12%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $41 +$20 +50%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $25 +$8 +32%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $41 −$22 -54%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $41 +$11 +26%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $10 +$4 +40%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $31 $0 -1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $142 −$103 -73%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $21 −$11 -55%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $51 +$31 +60%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $71 +$12 +17%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $31 +$1 +3%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $20 +$1 +7%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $54 −$7 -12%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $62 −$60 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $41 −$30 -74%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $82 −$19 -23%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $118 +$11 +9%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $10 +$2 +21%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $26 +$13 +51%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $10 +$4 +37%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $122 +$28 +23%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $70 −$27 -38%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $112 +$15 +13%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $61 +$2 +2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $174 +$47 +27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $183 +$28 +15%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $150 −$44 -29%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $122 +$37 +30%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $75 −$53 -71%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $20 +$1 +3%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $293 +$48 +16%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $71 −$15 -22%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $50 −$14 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 60¢ $5 2m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $10 3m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 46¢ $10 3m
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 56¢ $5 4m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 92¢ $25 5m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 34¢ $10 7m
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 44¢ $10 8m
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins SELL Texas Rangers 43¢ $29 8m
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 36¢ $5 9m
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 66¢ $10 9m
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 72¢ $13 13m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ $5 14m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 29¢ $10 15m
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 39¢ $5 17m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 39¢ $10 17m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 61¢ $3 18m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Seattle Mariners 39¢ $32 18m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 72¢ $10 19m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 39¢ $5 20m
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $10 22m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 21¢ $5 24m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 41¢ $5 25m
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 57¢ $10 26m
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $10 27m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 45¢ $10 28m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 37¢ $5 28m
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 44¢ $10 29m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 52¢ $16 32m
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Kansas City Royals 49¢ $30 32m
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 60¢ $36 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.96 · official $140.17 · 666 history records