Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b64…2350 other 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$340 (-16%) realized −$341 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%35W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$39
14 days+$68
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$78
politics 25% −$393
sports 9% +$25
crypto 8% −$46
finance 5% +$7
world 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +56.3% +41.4% 67% 44% -6.3%
≤30d 39 +54.6% +39.9% 67% 44% -4.4%
≤90d 56 +30.3% +17.9% 62% 38% -25.2%
all 56 +30.3% +17.9% 62% 38% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.9% 38% -25.2%
10% +6.6% 30% -32.3%
15% -3.7% 29% -38.9%
20% -13.1% 20% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$32 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$341
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses35 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage70d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 86¢ 86¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 +$8 +53%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $124 +$10 +8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $78 +$2 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $25 +$10 +40%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $12 $0 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $34 +$16 +45%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$11 +134%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $47 +$2 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +38%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $68 +$2 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$15 +41%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29 +$14 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$21 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 +$17 +165%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 −$33 -60%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24 +$6 +24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$30 +262%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $35 +$6 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 −$35 -88%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 +$5 +8%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 −$28 -81%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1845%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $22 +$22 +97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 09 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 09 $83 +$8 +10%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting? May 07 $37 +$1 +1%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $64 −$3 -5%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $590 on May 6? May 06 $5 $0 +6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 06 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 06 $18 −$18 -97%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5? May 06 $54 +$2 +3%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $3 +$2 +97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 10m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $23 12m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $16 12m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $43 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $23 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $49 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 17¢ $6 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 38¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $78 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $4 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $3 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $12 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 27h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $12 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $7 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $4 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $14 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.42 · official $61.42 (match) · 158 history records