trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 16 | -0.5% | -9.9% | 31% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -0.5% | -9.9% | 31% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 29 | -1.8% | -11.2% | 34% | 7% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.2% | 7% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -19.7% | 3% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -27.4% | 3% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -34.6% | 0% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 49¢ | 46¢ | $37 | $34 | −$2 (-6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 15 | $35 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 15 | $50 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 13 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 13 | $45 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 12 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | -3% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $41 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 09 | $4 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 08 | $42 | −$1 | -2% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 08 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $83 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $88 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 05 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | Dec 19 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 29 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? | Jun 07 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? | May 22 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship | May 22 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $8 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Aus | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the AFD be part of the next German government? | Apr 18 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 24 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 13 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Atalanta win the Serie A? | Mar 12 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| New Hampshire vs. Binghamton | Mar 04 | $8 | +$3 | +39% |