Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b70…b4d3 crypto 1815 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,607 (-4%) realized −$1,607 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%963W / 829L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$152
14 days+$584
30 days+$981
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,478
weather 1% −$143
sports 0% −$9
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -12.9% -21.2% 55% 55% -1.8%
≤30d 312 +15.9% +4.9% 62% 58% -0.9%
≤90d 1792 -3.4% -12.6% 54% 49% -12.7%
all 1792 -3.4% -12.6% 54% 49% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 49% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 44% -21.0%
15% -28.6% 39% -28.6%
20% -35.6% 33% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,607
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses963 / 829
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1792 / 1815
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1792 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $33 +$24 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $53 +$71 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$17 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$24 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$26 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$31 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$39 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$28 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $95 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $69 +$32 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$44 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$77 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$16 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $33 +$41 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records