Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:32:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b73…c441 other 353 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,555 (+1%) realized +$4,629 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate68%233W / 108L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$869per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Fees−$258est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$3,157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days−$787
14 days−$705
30 days+$560
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$5,169
sports 19% +$567
crypto 10% −$919
politics 6% +$61
finance 4% −$563
world 1% +$21
culture 0% +$49
tech 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +1.9% -7.8% 76% 44% -15.1%
≤30d 99 -7.5% -16.3% 73% 31% -8.6%
≤90d 341 -5.5% -14.5% 68% 23% -8.3%
all 341 -5.5% -14.5% 68% 23% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 23% -8.3%
10% -22.7% 14% -17.0%
15% ← realistic here -30.1% 9% -25.1%
20% -37.0% 6% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$848) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$143 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$3,157
Realized+$4,629
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses233 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$258
Open positions12
Markets (closed)341 / 353
History coverage77d
Avg bet$869
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 341 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? No 83¢ 81¢ $1,790 $1,755 −$35 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $291 $390 +$99 (+34%)
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $323 $323 +$0 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 63¢ 44¢ $400 $279 −$121 (-30%)
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 60¢ 56¢ $153 $144 −$9 (-6%)
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $90 $93 +$3 (+3%)
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 84¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $89 +$11 +12%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$2 -32%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $3,302 +$16 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 +$8 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $128 +$32 +25%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $394 +$8 +2%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $7 +$3 +48%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $7 +$2 +28%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$2 +33%
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $76 +$15 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 +$7 +56%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $26 −$5 -21%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $284 +$71 +25%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $94 +$1 +1%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $17 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $492 +$6 +1%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$3 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$6 +134%
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $77 +$2 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$8 +70%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $38 +$12 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $95 +$4 +4%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $87 +$6 +7%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 +$30 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,193 +$47 +4%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $455 +$5 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $12 +$8 +61%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $768 +$26 +3%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $433 +$67 +15%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2,988 +$9 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $119 +$68 +57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $92 −$13 -14%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2,607 −$986 -38%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $402 +$8 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,188 +$127 +11%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $273 +$17 +6%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 18m
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1,763 2h
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 2h
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 2h
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 2h
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $12 2h
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $19 2h
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $69 2h
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 2h
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $80 2h
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $324 2h
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $12 2h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $26 15h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $13 16h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $13 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 16h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 16h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $26 18h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,302 21h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $27 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $89 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 25h
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $8 25h
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $1 26h
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $7 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 89¢ $89 31h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,156.87 · official $3,157.11 (match) · 2677 history records