Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:34:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b73…e9f3 other 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$239 (+8%) realized +$23 · open +$216
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%17W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$2,047now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days−$135
14 days−$85
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$14
sports 26% −$10
politics 17% +$44
world 3% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.5% -2.8% 75% 38% -38.6%
≤30d 21 +6.5% -3.7% 76% 52% -17.5%
≤90d 24 +5.7% -4.4% 71% 50% -17.9%
all 24 +5.7% -4.4% 71% 50% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 50% -17.9%
10% -13.6% 33% -25.7%
15% -21.9% 29% -32.9%
20% -29.6% 25% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$52 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$2,047
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$216
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses17 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions25
Markets (closed)24 / 49
History coverage35d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 76¢ 92¢ $375 $459 +$84 (+22%)
Will Morocco be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 91¢ 98¢ $249 $267 +$18 (+7%)
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 93¢ $219 $253 +$34 (+16%)
Will Erling Haaland record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 83¢ $135 $135 −$1 (-0%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $117 $133 +$16 (+14%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 74¢ $76 $112 +$35 (+46%)
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 82¢ $89 $82 −$7 (-8%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? No 83¢ 88¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+6%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $67 $70 +$3 (+4%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? No 59¢ 72¢ $45 $55 +$10 (+22%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 98¢ $48 $49 +$2 (+3%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 92¢ $41 $46 +$5 (+12%)
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 57¢ 57¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $31 $41 +$10 (+32%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 74¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 70¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+6%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 69¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+38%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 76¢ $33 $29 −$4 (-12%)
Will Curaçao be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 88¢ 97¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+10%)
Will Darwin Nunez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $32 $23 −$9 (-27%)
Will Dani Olmo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 66¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-8%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 70¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 85¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 69¢ 57¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $172 −$170 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 19 $32 +$18 +55%
Will Harry Kane score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$4 -22%
Will Aymeric Laporte be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Marcos Llorente be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $16 +$16 +100%
Will Pedri be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $81 +$1 +1%
Will Álex Baena be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $13 +$3 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $122 +$51 +42%
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 05 $123 −$121 -99%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $48 +$48 +100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $46 +$7 +15%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? Jun 01 $8 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs Drama eSports - Map 1 Winner May 26 $41 +$30 +73%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka May 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Marcos Llorente be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup sq May 25 $30 +$4 +15%
Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority? May 25 $263 +$33 +12%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 May 21 $23 +$23 +97%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 53-55 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win 27-29 May 17 $3 −$1 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $12 25m
Will Morocco be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 2h
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $17 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 202 BUY No 68¢ $11 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $21 6h
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $13 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $151 7h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 65¢ $6 9h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 65¢ $2 9h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 65¢ $2 13h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 65¢ $2 16h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 65¢ $7 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 64¢ $32 27h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 65¢ $9 33h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 87¢ $87 33h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 65¢ $3 39h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 88¢ $88 44h
Will Erling Haaland record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIF BUY No 84¢ $52 2d
Will Harry Kane score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 2d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 81¢ $36 2d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 81¢ $18 2d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 81¢ $27 2d
Will Erling Haaland record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIF BUY No 83¢ $83 3d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $41 3d
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 4d
Will Pedri be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $81 4d
Will Álex Baena be in Spain's Starting 11? SELL Yes 50¢ $16 4d
Will Aymeric Laporte be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $80 4d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 60¢ $48 5d
Will Lamine Yamal score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,046.98 · official $2,046.98 (match) · 153 history records