Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:00:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b75…3fd1 sports 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$97,868 (+26%) realized +$106,753 · open −$8,885
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate55%89W / 72L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$2,144per market
Trades / day104.8pace
Fees−$1,536est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$47,135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$9,260
crypto 24% +$419
sports 21% +$7,624
other 6% −$1,894
world 6% −$763
tech 4% −$364
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +29.8% +17.4% 58% 36% -11.0%
≤30d 150 +47.0% +33.0% 55% 33% -10.1%
≤90d 161 +54.2% +39.6% 55% 33% -10.3%
all 161 +54.2% +39.6% 55% 33% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +39.6% 33% -10.3%
10% +26.2% 25% -18.9%
15% ← realistic here +14.0% 20% -26.7%
20% +2.8% 16% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$894) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +65% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$253 vs −$260 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$47,135
Realized+$106,753
Unrealized−$8,885
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses89 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,536
Open positions49
Markets (closed)161 / 176
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$2,144
Trades / day104.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 76¢ $12,500 $19,112 +$6,612 (+53%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $14,114 $14,296 +$182 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 24¢ $12,500 $5,888 −$6,612 (-53%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $2,550 $2,620 +$70 (+3%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $1,885 $1,917 +$33 (+2%)
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $900 $976 +$76 (+8%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $590 $590 −$0 (-0%)
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $554 $569 +$15 (+3%)
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? No 80¢ 94¢ $365 $428 +$63 (+17%)
Eric Adams charged by December 31? No 64¢ 73¢ $314 $358 +$44 (+14%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes $105 $120 +$15 (+14%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 57¢ 88¢ $41 $63 +$22 (+52%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $17 $36 +$19 (+117%)
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? No 33¢ 99¢ $9 $28 +$19 (+200%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes $35 $15 −$20 (-57%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 84¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes $121 $5 −$117 (-96%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $106 $3 −$104 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $106 $3 −$104 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $106 $3 −$104 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $106 $3 −$104 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $106 $3 −$104 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $106 $3 −$104 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $106 $3 −$104 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $2,317 +$106 +5%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $143 −$143 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $24 −$12 -48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $290 −$20 -7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $470 +$30 +6%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $59 +$165 +279%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $210 +$228 +108%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $663 −$100 -15%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $157 −$136 -86%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $367 +$15 +4%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $275 +$225 +82%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $144 −$142 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $629 +$43 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $418 −$15 -4%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $842 −$133 -16%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $548 −$475 -87%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $113 +$37 +33%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $66 +$34 +52%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $84 +$76 +90%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6,107 +$1,373 +22%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3,982 −$1,862 -47%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $98 +$2 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Parag Jun 12 $5 −$3 -60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $325 +$13 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $11,083 −$2,532 -23%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $412 −$243 -59%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $58 +$40 +70%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $251 +$106 +42%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $280 +$212 +76%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $61 +$18 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $943 −$62 -7%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $29 +$28 +97%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $23 −$5 -23%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $253 +$29 +12%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $1,000 +$11 +1%
Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 11 $1,797 +$55 +3%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $3,299 +$1 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $653 +$96 +15%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $156 +$21 +14%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1,470 −$467 -32%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $752 −$284 -38%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $2,909 +$1,152 +40%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $240 +$9 +4%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $31 −$3 -10%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $71 −$11 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $2 16m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 14¢ $55 25m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 46¢ $221 25m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 46¢ $9 25m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 16¢ $4 29m
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $2 31m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $43 51m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $183 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2,776 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $47 4h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1,612 5h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $232 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $1 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $1,952 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1,879 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $72 6h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 6h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1 6h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $7 8h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 8h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $389 8h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,956 8h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid $0 9h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid $29 9h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid $4 9h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid $4 9h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid $3 9h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid $23 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47,135.07 · official $47,135.07 (match) · 3500 history records