Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:51:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7B 0x7b78…0eb8 other 140 markets active 3h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,344 (+1%) realized +$2,341 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%28W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$1,412per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$15
14 days−$20
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$1,912
politics 37% −$88
sports 7% +$496
economics 3% −$8
world 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$5
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 -7.0% -15.9% 7% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 83 +1.7% -8.0% 7% 2% -9.6%
all 139 +4.5% -5.5% 20% 13% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 13% -8.5%
10% -14.5% 12% -17.2%
15% -22.8% 11% -25.2%
20% -30.3% 11% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,838) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$13 · ×10.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized+$2,341
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses28 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage131d
Avg bet$1,412
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $352 $355 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $1,592 −$2 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $3,105 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $524 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,826 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $2,456 −$4 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,838 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3,765 −$4 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,627 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $2,035 −$3 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $58 −$58 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,774 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $64 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $342 +$1 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,778 −$3 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $46 +$41 +90%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $692 −$1 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 23 $68 +$178 +262%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $2,898 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $560 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $5,513 −$6 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $242 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $8,169 −$9 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $2,107 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $2,637 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,069 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,081 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $3,218 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,088 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,086 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,957 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $673 2h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $674 3h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $462 18h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $463 20h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $584 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $585 2d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $521 2d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $522 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $672 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $673 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $523 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $524 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $653 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $654 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $644 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $645 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $694 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $696 8d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $673 8d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $674 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $753 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $754 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $352 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $930 14d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $931 14d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $863 14d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $964 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $966 15d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $961 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.16 · official $355.16 (match) · 460 history records