Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:30:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
7B 0x7b78…ef8a other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$146 (+5%) realized +$152 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$93
sports 17% +$148
crypto 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.8% -13.9% 83% 33% -7.2%
≤30d 6 -4.8% -13.9% 83% 33% -7.2%
≤90d 6 -4.8% -13.9% 83% 33% -7.2%
all 6 -4.8% -13.9% 83% 33% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 33% -7.2%
10% -22.1% 17% -16.0%
15% -29.7% 0% -24.1%
20% -36.6% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$233 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$394
Realized+$152
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $200 $186 −$14 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $504 +$148 +29%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $269 −$233 -86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,160 +$122 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 20 $202 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $204 +$24 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $651 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 12¢ $37 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $201 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,282 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,001 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 48¢ $203 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND SELL 63¢ $202 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 62¢ $202 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $68 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $79 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $79 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $228 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $204 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.71 · official $593.74 · 18 history records