Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:53:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b7d…8454 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$66 (-5%) realized −$67 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%19W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$6
14 days+$11
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$1
other 35% +$14
weather 24% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +26.6% +14.6% 50% 50% +15.7%
≤30d 34 -8.3% -17.0% 56% 47% -15.5%
≤90d 34 -8.3% -17.0% 56% 47% -15.5%
all 34 -8.3% -17.0% 56% 47% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 47% -15.5%
10% -25.0% 41% -23.6%
15% -32.2% 24% -31.0%
20% -38.9% 18% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$23 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses19 / 15
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions11
Markets (closed)34 / 45
History coverage37d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $72 $74 +$2 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $31 +$50 +164%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $10 +$3 +29%
Chwalinska vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 06 $7 +$1 +18%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $17 +$6 +34%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $32 −$7 -24%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $15 −$15 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $35 −$35 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $40 +$12 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $76 −$68 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $77 −$27 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $26 −$22 -86%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $53 +$36 +68%
Will Harry Kane have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champi May 31 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Vinícius Júnior record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champ May 31 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $41 −$35 -85%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $58 +$16 +28%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have the most goal contributions in the 202 May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $20 +$6 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? May 30 $40 +$10 +25%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $24 +$13 +52%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 24 $46 +$19 +42%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 24 $20 +$31 +152%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 24 $101 +$3 +3%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 22 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $45 +$16 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 32h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 75¢ $5 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Flavio Cobolli 28¢ $6 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 22¢ $5 8d
Chwalinska vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Under 100¢ $8 8d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Maja Chwalinska $0 9d
Chwalinska vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 84¢ $7 9d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 19¢ $5 9d
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 63¢ $5 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 95¢ $5 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 68¢ $6 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Jakub Mensik 33¢ $3 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Jakub Mensik 30¢ $3 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 75¢ $6 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 24¢ $5 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Berrettini 63¢ $15 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 32¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.13 · official $123.14 (match) · 107 history records