Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:08:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7B 0x7b7d…9f56 other 4 markets active 1d ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$306 (+117%) realized +$301 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +469% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +415% what you keep after slip
Net edge+415%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$5
politics 24% +$298
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+415.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +469.3% +415.1% 100% 100% +415.1%
≤90d 1 +469.3% +415.1% 100% 100% +415.1%
all 1 +469.3% +415.1% 100% 100% +415.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +415.1% 100% +415.1%
10% +365.8% 100% +365.8%
15% +320.8% 100% +320.8%
20% +279.6% 100% +279.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +469% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +469% · $-wt +469% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$298 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$301
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage17d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $95 $101 +$6 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $64 +$298 +469%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 33h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $46 33h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $46 33h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 17¢ $64 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.63 · official $197.58 (match) · 9 history records