Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:57:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b7e…ef88 sports 406 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,866 (-18%) realized −$11,831 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%121W / 283L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$995est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$186
7 days+$1,335
14 days+$727
30 days−$1,584
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$12,171
crypto 8% −$532
other 2% +$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +21.9% +10.3% 67% 67% +21.1%
≤30d 73 +11.1% +0.5% 38% 38% -18.7%
≤90d 296 -19.1% -26.8% 31% 31% -22.2%
all 404 -16.3% -24.3% 30% 29% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 29% -27.5%
10% -31.6% 27% -34.4%
15% -38.2% 25% -40.7%
20% -44.2% 23% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$134 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized−$11,831
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses121 / 283
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$995
Open positions2
Markets (closed)404 / 406
History coverage120d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 404 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Virtus.pro 70¢ 72¢ $400 $414 +$14 (+4%)
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner HULIGANI 9¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 258 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $347 +$362 +104%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $243 −$238 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $203 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $113 −$110 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $203 +$189 +93%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $705 +$228 +32%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $203 +$214 +105%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $611 +$525 +86%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $744 +$158 +21%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $204 −$200 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $153 +$188 +124%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $224 +$218 +98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $131 −$129 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $133 −$130 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $356 −$350 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $123 −$120 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $405 +$240 +59%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $164 −$160 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $123 +$315 +257%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $167 +$727 +437%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $123 −$120 -97%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $307 −$254 -83%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $305 −$300 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $194 +$70 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $298 −$105 -35%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $235 −$230 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $123 −$118 -96%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $31 +$230 +744%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $263 +$262 +100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $51 +$152 +295%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,026 −$1,023 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $205 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $305 +$407 +133%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $103 +$24 +23%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $287 +$518 +180%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $132 −$130 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $153 −$150 -98%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $348 +$77 +22%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $204 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $203 −$200 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $122 +$167 +137%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Cl Jun 04 $91 +$298 +327%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 03 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 03 $52 −$25 -48%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $243 +$164 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 70¢ $404 8m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL HULIGANI 88¢ $710 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 42¢ $347 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 9¢ $51 2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY Team Liquid 29¢ $39 10h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY Team Liquid 29¢ $204 10h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $203 36h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 18¢ $113 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 75¢ $705 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 48¢ $203 3d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $293 3d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 34¢ $102 3d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 62¢ $330 3d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 37¢ $204 3d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 64¢ $514 3d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 37¢ $306 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $744 4d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 29¢ $204 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $153 5d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner SELL REKONIX 81¢ $442 6d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 40¢ $224 6d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 18¢ $71 7d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 28¢ $61 7d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 17¢ $133 8d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $356 11d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 21¢ $123 14d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) SELL T1 100¢ $644 14d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) BUY T1 62¢ $405 14d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 23¢ $164 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.56 · official $391.71 · 690 history records