Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b7f…d56c sports 279 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$710 (+3%) realized +$1,001 · open −$291
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate49%97W / 101L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$4,949now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,245
7 days−$672
14 days−$669
30 days−$669
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$552
other 39% −$541
world 3% −$709
crypto 2% −$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 -15.4% -23.4% 43% 28% -12.7%
≤30d 170 -15.0% -23.1% 44% 29% -12.7%
≤90d 198 -6.8% -15.6% 49% 34% -12.0%
all 198 -6.8% -15.6% 49% 34% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 34% -12.0%
10% -23.7% 25% -20.4%
15% -31.1% 18% -28.1%
20% -37.8% 15% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$42 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$4,949
Realized+$1,001
Unrealized−$291
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses97 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions81
Markets (closed)198 / 279
History coverage68d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 81 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 45¢ 78¢ $550 $970 +$420 (+76%)
Will Iraq be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 79¢ 96¢ $535 $648 +$114 (+21%)
Will Ivory Coast be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 87¢ 94¢ $364 $394 +$30 (+8%)
Will Austria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 48¢ 68¢ $229 $324 +$95 (+42%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 26¢ $601 $308 −$292 (-49%)
Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 74¢ 99¢ $219 $293 +$75 (+34%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 78¢ $261 $271 +$11 (+4%)
Will Uzbekistan be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 76¢ 84¢ $217 $239 +$21 (+10%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $188 $192 +$4 (+2%)
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 0 Argentina? No 98¢ 99¢ $168 $169 +$0 (+0%)
Will Austria be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? Yes 24¢ 43¢ $75 $132 +$57 (+77%)
Will France finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 19¢ 32¢ $65 $111 +$45 (+69%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? No 75¢ 96¢ $80 $102 +$22 (+27%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $93 $94 +$1 (+1%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $32 $65 +$32 (+100%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? No 91¢ 91¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ goals No 89¢ 92¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+4%)
Will Algeria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $53 $39 −$15 (-28%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 37¢ 89¢ $15 $35 +$21 (+141%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? No 92¢ 92¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 88¢ 93¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+6%)
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? No 94¢ 94¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 89¢ 78¢ $27 $23 −$3 (-13%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? No 94¢ 92¢ $24 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 +$2 +18%
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $29 +$3 +11%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $11 +$16 +149%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 $0 -0%
Norway vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $240 +$26 +11%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $7 +$3 +46%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $32 +$28 +86%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $42 +$8 +20%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $19 −$9 -50%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 −$5 -50%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists Jun 23 $89 +$11 +12%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $27 −$27 -98%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 23 $200 +$8 +4%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 23 $200 $0 -0%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists Jun 23 $12 $0 +4%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $75 −$6 -8%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $16 +$1 +7%
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $74 +$14 +19%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $188 $0 -0%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $36 $0 -1%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $183 $0 -0%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $14 +$1 +10%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target Jun 23 $23 +$1 +6%
France vs. Iraq: France 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $188 −$19 -10%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals Jun 23 $53 +$5 +10%
Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals Jun 23 $11 +$1 +11%
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $109 −$20 -19%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $113 +$21 +18%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $86 +$21 +25%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $24 −$24 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $14 −$14 -98%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists Jun 22 $14 −$14 -97%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 22 $12 −$6 -50%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots Jun 22 $15 +$21 +143%
Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots Jun 22 $13 +$23 +180%
Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target Jun 22 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $239 +$66 +27%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $26 +$4 +13%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $121 −$13 -11%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $295 +$10 +4%
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $46 +$4 +9%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $17 +$16 +94%
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $37 −$7 -18%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $57 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $11 −$2 -20%
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 +$1 +5%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 +$5 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 4m
Will Iraq be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Wor BUY No 96¢ $251 4m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 14¢ $8 31m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $42 32m
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $10 42m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 88¢ $9 42m
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 17¢ $2 42m
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 18¢ $2 42m
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $9 42m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 13¢ $1 42m
Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ shots BUY Yes 5¢ $1 44m
Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ goals BUY No 90¢ $18 44m
Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ shots BUY Yes 5¢ $2 44m
Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ goals BUY No 89¢ $27 44m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 31¢ $3 54m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 68¢ $7 54m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 88¢ $4 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Over 18¢ $1 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 86¢ $4 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Over 18¢ $1 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $27 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $23 1h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will France finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 22¢ $11 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 1h
Will France be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,948.68 · official $4,946.09 (match) · 1482 history records