Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b80…d301 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$32
crypto 12% −$6
sports 6% +$34
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -22.4% -29.8% 54% 23% -9.8%
≤30d 26 -22.4% -29.8% 54% 23% -9.8%
≤90d 26 -22.4% -29.8% 54% 23% -9.8%
all 26 -22.4% -29.8% 54% 23% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 23% -9.8%
10% -36.5% 4% -18.4%
15% -42.6% 4% -26.3%
20% -48.3% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage4d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $170 +$11 +6%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $199 −$29 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -23%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $161 +$35 +22%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $164 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $154 +$12 +8%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $213 −$59 -28%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $216 +$2 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $216 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $197 +$19 +10%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 25 $174 +$24 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $216 −$41 -19%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 3 Qatar? Jun 24 $209 +$6 +3%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $186 +$24 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $29 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 43m
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? SELL No 99¢ $181 49m
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? BUY No 93¢ $170 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? SELL No 81¢ $170 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY No 94¢ $199 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up $1 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 82¢ $161 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 87¢ $161 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $164 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up $1 6h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? SELL No 100¢ $166 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records