Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b83…fb96 politics 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 635d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%4W / 66L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$21
other 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 6 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 70 -1.9% -11.3% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses4 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage635d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $54 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $54 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $54 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $54 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Michael Misa win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? Feb 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Justin Herbert win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Evan Engram be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Circle IPO in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Drake London be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Argentina dollarize in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the NFC West Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Caleb Williams win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Justin Jefferson be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Maxx Crosby win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the NFC East? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Robert O'Brien be Trump's Defense Secretary? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Doug Collins confirmed as Secretary of Veterans Affairs? Dec 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will Dynamo Kyiv win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Democrats win popular vote by 7% or more? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador? Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
Nine Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will Donovan Mitchell lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Hunter Biden fined over 100k in gun case? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in November? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Orlando City win the MLS Cup? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the AFC south? Dec 09 $4 $0 -0%
Will Texas A&M win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Besiktas win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 11 $0 $0 -2%
Will CeeDee Lamb win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 11 $0 $0 -1%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Oct 08 $1 $0 -0%
Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election Oct 08 $0 $0 -3%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $2,022 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 13h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $54 19d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $54 19d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 27d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 27d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 39d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 40d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 49d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 49d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 73d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 73d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 97d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 98d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 98d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 98d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 98d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $4 98d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 98d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $4 98d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 98d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 98d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $4 98d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 98d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 98d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 98d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 98d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 98d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 98d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records