Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:31:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b84…953a world 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$84 (+1%) realized +$922 · open −$838
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$92
finance 13% +$34
politics 2% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 65% 53% +3.8%
all 17 -0.6% -10.1% 65% 53% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 53% +3.8%
10% -18.7% 53% -6.2%
15% -26.6% 24% -15.2%
20% -33.8% 6% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$150 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized+$922
Unrealized−$838
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage58d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 21¢ 20¢ $150 $143 −$7 (-5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 43¢ $600 $112 −$488 (-81%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes $378 $37 −$342 (-90%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 14¢ 14¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $108 −$108 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 08 $264 +$74 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 04 $662 −$296 -45%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 03 $104 −$15 -15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 03 $102 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 03 $515 +$148 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 03 $102 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Apr 30 $104 −$100 -96%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 28 $404 +$140 +35%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 28 $290 −$290 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $1,296 +$330 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 25 $336 +$121 +36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $572 +$211 +37%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $300 +$96 +32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 22 $300 +$146 +49%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $275 +$488 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $95 13m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $55 20m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $34 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $600 33h
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 30¢ $72 32d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 32d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 32d
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 36¢ $97 32d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 32d
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 32d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 32d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $338 38d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $29 40d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $163 40d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 40d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 40d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $22 40d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes $8 41d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes $0 41d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes $0 41d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes $0 41d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes $0 41d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes $0 41d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes $1 41d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes $1 41d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes $0 41d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes $0 41d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes $1 41d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes $0 41d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes $0 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.59 · official $324.59 (match) · 175 history records