Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b87…90f6 other 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$9
politics 27% −$9
economics 6% −$2
sports 4% −$63
culture 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -5.9% -14.9% 9% 4% -9.8%
all 104 -5.9% -14.9% 9% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 4% -9.8%
10% -23.0% 3% -18.4%
15% -30.5% 3% -26.3%
20% -37.3% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)104 / 107
History coverage88d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $170 $170 −$0 (-0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $266 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $269 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $108 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $975 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $252 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $237 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $545 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 11 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $240 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $261 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $236 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $254 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 04 $253 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $247 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $258 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $252 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $253 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $241 $0 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $513 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $265 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $268 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 14 $249 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $248 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 9h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 13h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $10 13h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 31h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 34h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $170 2d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $43 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $35 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 16d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $33 16d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 18d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 18d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 19d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 19d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.01 · official $235.01 (match) · 309 history records