Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:51:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7B 0x7b88…5d08 sports 528 markets active 2h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34,773 (-1%) realized −$35,463 · open +$690
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%274W / 243L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,487per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3,671est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$3,390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$958
7 days+$704
14 days−$3,591
30 days−$3,631
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$154,543
other 8% +$134,578
culture 0% −$9,416
politics 0% −$3,593
crypto 0% −$3,888
economics 0% +$630
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +15.5% +4.5% 62% 56% -3.4%
≤30d 57 +18.6% +7.3% 56% 53% -14.6%
≤90d 155 +5.2% -4.8% 53% 50% -25.8%
all 517 +0.3% -9.2% 53% 52% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 52% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 48% -19.2%
15% -25.8% 43% -27.0%
20% -33.1% 37% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$7,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3,759 vs −$4,391 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$3,390
Realized−$35,463
Unrealized+$690
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses274 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$3,671
Open positions5
Markets (closed)517 / 528
History coverage589d
Avg bet$5,487
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 517 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 92¢ $1,000 $1,664 +$664 (+66%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $1,000 $1,219 +$219 (+22%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 45¢ 29¢ $500 $322 −$178 (-36%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 27 $1,468 +$276 +19%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $728 +$470 +65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $508 −$500 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $711 −$700 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $709 −$700 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,015 +$946 +93%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $608 +$5 +1%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$50 +49%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $506 −$44 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$161 +158%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $507 +$454 +90%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $507 +$419 +83%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $509 +$654 +129%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,519 +$1,067 +70%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $3,448 −$3,400 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2,132 +$2,068 +97%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 AND Will United Sta Jun 19 $689 +$517 +75%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $507 +$431 +85%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,523 +$1,602 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,946 −$1,920 -99%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $508 +$492 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $665 +$2,398 +360%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2,685 +$301 +11%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $51 +$246 +481%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $509 +$659 +130%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $3,555 −$3,500 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $1,522 −$1,500 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $2,224 −$2,200 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 13 $506 −$500 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $507 −$500 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2,457 +$2,794 +114%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1,822 +$98 +5%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $255 +$327 +128%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,016 +$1,024 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $254 −$201 -79%
1H Spread: Knicks (-0.5) Jun 11 $305 +$305 +100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $254 +$266 +105%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $346 +$263 +76%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $1,006 −$991 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,195 +$2,447 +112%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $538 −$530 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 08 $255 −$250 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $1,370 +$1,330 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $4,514 −$4,472 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Tea BUY 41¢ $99 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $508 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,013 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Atlanta Braves 67¢ $1,744 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 63¢ $1,199 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $117 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $611 20h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $507 20h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $961 20h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 23h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY 16¢ $280 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,014 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $508 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $711 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $709 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 SELL Under 89¢ $175 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 86¢ $151 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 SELL Over 49¢ $439 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 58¢ $462 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,024 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,015 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $507 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $506 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $509 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,390.23 · official $3,364.08 (match) · 1402 history records