Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7b89…f3a9 sports 328 markets active 2h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,297 (+16%) realized +$1,297 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%160W / 163L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days+$49
14 days−$50
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$1,575
crypto 12% −$64
other 4% −$110
culture 1% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +24.2% +12.4% 75% 75% +12.5%
≤30d 26 +7.0% -3.2% 50% 50% -1.5%
≤90d 121 +26.2% +14.2% 57% 52% +14.9%
all 323 +2.3% -7.5% 50% 45% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 45% -3.8%
10% -16.3% 40% -13.0%
15% -24.4% 37% -21.4%
20% -31.8% 35% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$15 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$1,297
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses160 / 163
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)323 / 328
History coverage191d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 323 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 131 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$36 +71%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 +$36 +74%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $100 +$83 +82%
WTT - Men's Singles: Kanak Jha vs Darko Jorgic Jun 09 $20 +$16 +79%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 +$20 +97%
WTT - Men's Singles: Anders Lind vs Maharu Yoshimura Jun 04 $29 +$22 +76%
WTT - Men's Singles: Tiago Apolonia vs Manav Thakkar Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Cerundolo vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 36.5 May 30 $20 +$16 +81%
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 May 30 $20 +$17 +85%
Mboko vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5 May 30 $19 −$1 -5%
Arnaldi vs. Collignon: Match O/U 38.5 May 30 $20 −$4 -19%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 30 $20 −$1 -4%
Cobolli vs. Tien: Match O/U 36.5 May 30 $34 −$33 -99%
Ruud vs. Paul: Match O/U 36.5 May 30 $20 +$15 +76%
Fonseca vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5 May 30 $20 +$17 +83%
Roland Garros WTA: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Tabilo vs. Vacherot: Match O/U 38.5 May 29 $20 −$1 -7%
Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Comesana (+1.5) May 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Navone vs. Mensik: Match O/U 36.5 May 28 $20 +$16 +79%
Fonseca vs. Prizmic: Match O/U 38.5 May 28 $20 +$19 +93%
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Volynets (+1.5) May 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Minaur vs. Blockx: Match O/U 36.5 May 27 $30 −$4 -13%
Li vs. Zhang: Match O/U 21.5 May 26 $19 −$1 -8%
Cobolli vs. Pellegrino: Match O/U 36.5 May 25 $26 −$25 -99%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Bondar (+1.5) May 25 $17 +$28 +162%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) May 23 $19 −$19 -98%
WTT - Men's Singles: Manav Thakkar vs Jong-Hoon Lim May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
WTT - Women's Singles: Syndrela Das vs Honoka Hashimoto May 23 $8 +$1 +12%
WTT - Women's Singles: Hitomi Sato vs Fatimo Bello May 23 $45 +$1 +2%
WTT - Men's Singles: Manush Shah vs Matthew Kuti May 22 $9 +$1 +10%
WTT - Women's Singles: Gaia Monfardini vs Saki Shibata May 22 $14 +$5 +35%
WTT - Women's Singles: Mo Zhang vs Paulina Vega May 22 $15 +$4 +28%
WTT - Men's Singles: Lilian Bardet vs Taiwo Mati May 22 $17 +$3 +16%
WTT - Men's Singles: Ankur Bhattacharjee vs Abdulbasit Abdulfatai May 22 $18 +$3 +15%
WTT - Women's Singles: Satsuki Odo vs Abosede Odusanya May 22 $30 +$4 +15%
WTT - Men's Singles: Anders Lind vs Iulian Chirita May 22 $24 +$11 +45%
WTT - Women's Singles: Favour Ojo vs Cheon-Hui Joo May 22 $9 +$1 +8%
WTT - Men's Singles: Jong-Hoon Lim vs Olajide Omotayo May 22 $9 +$1 +8%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 20 $19 +$10 +50%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 20 $20 +$19 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 19 $20 +$16 +79%
Oeiras 4: Jaime Faria vs Emilio Nava May 15 $10 +$11 +109%
Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Dusan Lajovic May 15 $21 −$2 -8%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Bordeaux: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 15 $10 +$7 +64%
WTT - Men's Singles: Japan vs China May 10 $10 +$6 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AND Will Japan BUY 13¢ $13 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 53¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 31h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 49¢ $51 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 60¢ $63 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $51 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 57¢ $50 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 58¢ $51 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $19 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 12d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $30 12d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Monte 100¢ $183 16d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 54¢ $50 16d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 54¢ $51 16d
WTT - Men's Singles: Kanak Jha vs Darko Jorgic BUY Jorgic 55¢ $20 18d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 50¢ $20 18d
WTT - Men's Singles: Anders Lind vs Maharu Yoshimura SELL Lind 100¢ $51 20d
WTT - Men's Singles: Anders Lind vs Maharu Yoshimura BUY Lind 56¢ $29 21d
WTT - Men's Singles: Tiago Apolonia vs Manav Thakkar BUY Thakkar 52¢ $30 21d
Cerundolo vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 36.5 SELL Over 99¢ $37 25d
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 SELL Over 99¢ $37 25d
Mboko vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 51¢ $18 26d
Arnaldi vs. Collignon: Match O/U 38.5 SELL Over 46¢ $16 26d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic SELL Elina Svitolina 59¢ $19 26d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic BUY Elina Svitolina 60¢ $20 26d
Mboko vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $19 26d
Cobolli vs. Tien: Match O/U 36.5 BUY Over 55¢ $34 26d
Roland Garros WTA: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek BUY Magda Linette $0 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.14 · official $225.15 · 605 history records