Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b89…87ba other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$222 (-10%) realized −$252 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%29W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$46
sports 47% −$72
world 1% −$20
crypto 1% −$5
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -30.1% -36.8% 45% 45% -17.2%
≤30d 11 -30.1% -36.8% 45% 45% -17.2%
≤90d 45 -57.7% -61.7% 22% 22% -43.1%
all 69 -6.7% -15.6% 42% 42% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 42% -17.4%
10% -23.7% 39% -25.3%
15% -31.1% 33% -32.5%
20% -37.8% 28% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$25 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$252
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses29 / 40
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage125d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 46¢ 70¢ $59 $90 +$31 (+53%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $61 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay to win the second half? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $51 +$45 +89%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$46 +45%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$7 +34%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$24 +47%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$27 +53%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 18 $40 −$32 -80%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 7-13? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $21 +$5 +23%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 12 $41 −$26 -62%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Apr 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Gujarat Titans Apr 12 $60 −$18 -30%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 11 $64 +$146 +228%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 09 $10 +$2 +18%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 05 $34 −$30 -89%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Apr 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25? Apr 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Apr 05 $6 −$6 -100%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs England Apr 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-08? Apr 05 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? Apr 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs Pakistan Apr 05 $65 +$8 +12%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-01? Apr 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-03-01? Apr 05 $39 −$34 -87%
Will Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes end in a draw? Apr 05 $100 −$100 -100%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs New Zealand Apr 05 $70 −$18 -26%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs Zimbabwe Apr 05 $50 −$50 -100%
T20 World Cup: Afghanistan vs Canada (Game 1) Apr 05 $32 −$32 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-08? Apr 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Apr 05 $15 −$15 -100%
T20 Series Hong Kong vs Kuwait: Hong Kong, China vs Kuwait Apr 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Apr 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-02-22? Apr 05 $13 −$13 -100%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Apr 05 $43 +$56 +130%
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs West Indies Apr 05 $63 −$63 -100%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand Mar 04 $60 +$17 +28%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $5 +$20 +400%
Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-02-22? Mar 01 $11 −$11 -93%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $100 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 89¢ $98 1h
Uruguay to win the second half? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 79¢ $27 46h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $75 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 2d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $60 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 79¢ $17 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings SELL Chennai Super Kings $8 64d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Chennai Super Kings 40¢ $20 64d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Chennai Super Kings 50¢ $20 64d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 43¢ $26 69d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 35¢ $21 69d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore SELL Mumbai Indians 13¢ $15 70d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore BUY Mumbai Indians 30¢ $21 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.77 · official $179.77 (match) · 234 history records