Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b8a…b13b other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate74%17W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$3
other 31% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.5% -10.9% 74% 61% -11.9%
≤30d 23 -1.5% -10.9% 74% 61% -11.9%
≤90d 23 -1.5% -10.9% 74% 61% -11.9%
all 23 -1.5% -10.9% 74% 61% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 61% -11.9%
10% -19.4% 39% -20.3%
15% -27.2% 30% -28.0%
20% -34.3% 13% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses17 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 $0 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +16%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +38%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 48¢ $1 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 20h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $2 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 20h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 20h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $2 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.42 · official $49.42 (match) · 41 history records