Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7B 0x7b8a…e0f7 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-1%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate48%31W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$85
14 days+$85
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$188
sports 34% +$74
economics 14% +$35
other 12% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +67.5% +51.6% 95% 32% -3.8%
≤30d 19 +67.5% +51.6% 95% 32% -3.8%
≤90d 19 +67.5% +51.6% 95% 32% -3.8%
all 64 -19.6% -27.3% 48% 23% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 23% -11.0%
10% -34.2% 12% -19.6%
15% -40.6% 11% -27.3%
20% -46.4% 11% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$18 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses31 / 33
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)64 / 69
History coverage221d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $86 $85 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Over 15¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $69 +$4 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $41 $0 +1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $39 $0 +1%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $137 +$12 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $136 +$1 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $132 +$4 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $9 +$2 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $112 +$9 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $81 +$10 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $102 +$9 +8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $96 +$6 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $75 +$22 +29%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 +$2 +3%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $48 +$25 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $87 −$39 -45%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $76 +$11 +15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $14 +$1 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $69 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 14 $50 +$67 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 14 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 14 $200 +$34 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 07 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 07 $184 −$2 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 07 $45 −$45 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 5? Mar 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8? Mar 04 $231 +$3 +1%
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 02 $231 +$40 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Feb 27 $86 −$84 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 26 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Feb 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Feb 25 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 24 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 23 $145 +$171 +118%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Feb 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 22 $195 +$10 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $86 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $2 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $50 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $73 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $41 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $39 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $41 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $39 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $69 2h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 92¢ $137 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $137 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $136 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $136 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $132 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $59 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $9 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $7 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $36 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $10 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $13 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $29 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $39 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 97¢ $23 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 96¢ $7 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $111 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $102 27h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $102 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $96 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.94 · official $152.54 (match) · 121 history records