Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b93…40fb other 156 markets active 4d ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate1%2W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$36
14 days−$37
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$33
politics 20% −$7
world 16% −$15
sports 15% −$8
economics 8% −$1
finance 7% +$8
crypto 4% −$5
culture 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -7.3% -16.1% 0% 0% -15.8%
≤30d 47 -5.4% -14.4% 0% 0% -12.5%
≤90d 118 +11.7% +1.0% 2% 1% -10.0%
all 154 +8.3% -2.0% 1% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 1% -9.9%
10% -11.4% 1% -18.6%
15% -20.0% 1% -26.4%
20% -27.8% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×11.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses2 / 152
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)154 / 156
History coverage92d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 45¢ 74¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIF Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Will Tahith Chong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $14 $0 -1%
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -37%
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $7 $0 -2%
Will USA be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage Jun 13 $7 $0 -2%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -7%
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $17 $0 -1%
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Jun 13 $14 −$2 -11%
Will Argentina finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $29 −$11 -39%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 13 $4 $0 -4%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 13 $19 −$2 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 12 $7 $0 -4%
World Cup Goals H2H: Neymar vs. Vinicius Jr. Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 -3%
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Christian Pulisic score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $8 −$6 -72%
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 12 $80 −$3 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $66 −$1 -1%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Ghana be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
Will Ghana be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 12 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 12 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 F Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Czechia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $13 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $21 $0 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $53 −$6 -11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $203 $0 -0%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $36 −$3 -7%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 01 $35 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $153 −$1 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 28 $20 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $50 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $31 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $35 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $73 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 10 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIF SELL Yes 23¢ $2 4d
Will Ecuador be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4d
Will Tahith Chong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 69¢ $14 4d
Will Tahith Chong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $14 4d
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4d
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 4d
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 4d
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 4d
Will USA be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage SELL No 34¢ $7 4d
Will USA be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage BUY No 34¢ $7 4d
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $9 4d
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $9 4d
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 73¢ $17 4d
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $17 4d
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World SELL No 54¢ $13 4d
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY No 60¢ $14 4d
Will Argentina finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro SELL Yes 22¢ $4 4d
Will Argentina finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY Yes 22¢ $4 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 51¢ $18 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $29 4d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 10¢ $3 4d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 10¢ $4 4d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 10¢ $0 4d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 10¢ $0 4d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 57¢ $18 4d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.00 (match) · 1325 history records