Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:53:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

7B 0x7b94…028b crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$54 (-39%) realized −$54 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%7W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$9per market

Trades / day32.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-15.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-6.5%	-15.4%	47%	47%	-46.8%
≤30d	15	-6.5%	-15.4%	47%	47%	-46.8%
≤90d	15	-6.5%	-15.4%	47%	47%	-46.8%
all	15	-6.5%	-15.4%	47%	47%	-46.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover32.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-15.4%	47%	-46.8%
10% ← realistic here	-23.5%	47%	-51.9%
15%	-30.9%	33%	-56.6%
20%	-37.7%	27%	-60.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -55% → late +36% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.39 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$54

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses7 / 8

Open positions0

Markets (closed)15 / 15

History coverage1d

Avg bet$9

Trades / day32.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 15 Trades

no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Jun 23	$5	+$19	+364%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 23	$4	−$4	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Jun 23	$3	+$2	+77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 23	$11	+$4	+39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Jun 23	$5	−$4	-69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Jun 23	$5	+$3	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Jun 22	$5	+$1	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Jun 22	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Jun 22	$4	−$4	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Jun 22	$16	−$15	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Jun 22	$5	+$2	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Jun 22	$11	+$4	+37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 22	$28	−$28	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	SELL Down	56¢	$25	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$5	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	32¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	SELL Up	39¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	SELL Up	15¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	SELL Up	29¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	BUY Up	18¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	SELL Up	2¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	SELL Up	14¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	SELL Down	32¢	$6	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	SELL Up	1¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$4	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	BUY Down	15¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	SELL Up	46¢	$7	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	SELL Up	25¢	$13	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	BUY Down	13¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$2	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records