Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7B 0x7b97…38db world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$3
other 19% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 8% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +5.3% -4.7% 67% 11% -8.3%
≤30d 11 +4.4% -5.6% 55% 9% -8.7%
≤90d 11 +4.4% -5.6% 55% 9% -8.7%
all 31 +1.9% -7.8% 58% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 3% -9.0%
10% -16.6% 3% -17.7%
15% -24.7% 3% -25.6%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.52 per $1 lost it wins $7.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage476d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 56¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $86 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Giants make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 13 $17 $0 -2%
Will courts block Trump's tariffs by Friday? Apr 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Ha Mar 21 $12 $0 +1%
Trump negative approval before March? Mar 20 $6 $0 +8%
Will SBF tweet again by Friday? Feb 28 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $27 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $10 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $10 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $7 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $46 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $45 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $48 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $48 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $17 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $43 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $43 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records