Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:15:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7B
0x7b99…296b
weather · 400 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$95 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$90 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$56
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses137 / 259
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)396 / 400
History coverage95d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 4 History 396 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$43
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-7%)
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers? Yes 14¢ 7¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Will María Jesús Montero be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 31? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C or below on June 3? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 3? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on May 25? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 25? No 39¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on May 25? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C or below on May 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 25? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 15? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on May 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on June 3? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 3? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Por Andalucia (PA) win the Andalusia regional election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or below on May 25? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 3? No 39¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on May 25? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 12? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $53 −$30 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $20 −$3 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 31? May 29 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on May 31? May 29 $0 $0 -95%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 25 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on May 25? May 25 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on May 25? May 25 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 25? May 25 $8 −$8 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or below on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the Andalusia regional election? May 17 $35 −$34 -96%
Will Por Andalucia (PA) win the Andalusia regional election? May 17 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 15? May 15 $21 −$9 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 15? May 15 $178 +$14 +8%
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? May 15 $87 −$5 -6%
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? May 15 $98 +$41 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 15? May 15 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 15? May 15 $14 −$13 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 15? May 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 12? May 12 $121 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 12? May 12 $57 −$47 -83%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 12 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 13? May 12 $4 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C or below on May 13? May 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 12? May 12 $9 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 12? May 12 $112 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11? May 12 $88 +$14 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 11? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 11? May 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 12? May 12 $1 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C or below on May 12? May 12 $276 +$36 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 11? May 11 $217 +$16 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C or below on May 11? May 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 11? May 11 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 11? May 11 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 11? May 11 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 11? May 11 $1 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 11? May 11 $0 $0 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 3? May 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 7? May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 7? May 10 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 3? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 90% −$193
other 7% +$124
politics 2% −$25
sports 1% +$7
world 1% +$2
culture 0% −$7
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $17 6d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 3? SELL No 39¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 3? SELL No 42¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 3? SELL No 40¢ $3 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 3? SELL No 40¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 3? SELL No 40¢ $9 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 3? BUY No 39¢ $53 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C or below on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 11¢ $11 18d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on May 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 18d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on May 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 18d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 25? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 25 -77.1% -79.2% 12% 8% -24.1%
≤90d 389 -17.8% -25.6% 34% 20% -10.5%
all 396 -16.9% -24.8% 35% 21% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 21% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.0% 14% -19.0%
15% -38.6% 12% -26.8%
20% -44.6% 8% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.72 · official $55.72 (match) · 2779 history records