Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:22:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7B 0x7b9c…b478 sports 169 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,210 (+19%) realized +$1,218 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate69%112W / 51L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$226
7 days−$532
14 days−$149
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$828
sports 39% +$380
world 1% −$38
crypto 1% −$7
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -62.5% -66.1% 25% 25% -27.4%
≤30d 73 -36.8% -42.9% 42% 42% -8.6%
≤90d 105 -8.4% -17.1% 60% 60% +1.4%
all 163 +12.4% +1.7% 69% 64% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 64% +8.3%
10% -8.0% 58% -2.1%
15% -16.9% 52% -11.6%
20% -25.0% 37% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$26 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$397
Realized+$1,218
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses112 / 51
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions6
Markets (closed)163 / 169
History coverage133d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 64¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score No 47¢ 52¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 71¢ 53¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $151 +$32 +21%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $303 +$138 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $110 +$12 +11%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $111 +$53 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-15? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-03-13? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-05? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Angers SCO vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Canucks vs. Sharks Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-22? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-05-04? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will England win on 2026-03-27? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Torino FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-06? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-03-23? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-04-01? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Mexico vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
AS Roma vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $51 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $51 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $151 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $110 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $111 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $20 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $50 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $151 8d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 8d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 86¢ $60 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $50 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 9d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $397.29 · official $397.30 (match) · 369 history records