Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b9c…953c crypto 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$679 (-11%) realized −$679 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%71W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$212
14 days−$895
30 days−$1,005
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,005
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -11.0% -19.4% 45% 9% -27.8%
≤30d 144 -18.1% -25.9% 49% 38% -25.7%
≤90d 144 -18.1% -25.9% 49% 38% -25.7%
all 144 -18.1% -25.9% 49% 38% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 38% -25.7%
10% -33.0% 25% -32.8%
15% -39.5% 16% -39.3%
20% -45.4% 10% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$23 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$679
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses71 / 73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)144 / 144
History coverage19d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 144 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $124 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $126 −$20 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $144 −$27 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $190 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$52 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$22 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $108 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$5 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $182 −$175 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $126 −$120 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$16 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $72 −$20 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $58 +$21 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$11 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $109 +$26 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $129 +$26 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$84 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $205 −$86 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $53 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$43 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $21 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $114 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $19 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $105 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 369 history records