Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:50:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7b9d…42fc other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$423 (+23%) realized +$432 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$914now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$266
30 days+$443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$253
sports 25% +$152
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
weather 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +93.6% +75.1% 100% 100% +67.8%
≤90d 9 +21.3% +9.7% 89% 33% +33.7%
all 14 +6.7% -3.5% 86% 21% +30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 21% +30.3%
10% -12.7% 21% +17.8%
15% -21.2% 21% +6.5%
20% -28.9% 21% -4.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$85 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.45 per $1 lost it wins $3.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$914
Realized+$432
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage180d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $668 $673 +$6 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? No 41¢ 40¢ $250 $241 −$9 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $363 +$266 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $156 +$178 +114%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $139 +$141 +101%
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? May 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $10 $0 +0%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31? May 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? May 18 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 6? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $168 −$166 -99%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of February? Feb 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Amazon reach $320 in January? Feb 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Netflix reach $455 in January? Feb 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23? Feb 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Jan 06 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $914.31 · official $914.31 (match) · 30 history records