Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7ba0…3df4 crypto 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$83 (-17%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day54.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.0% -13.1% 50% 50% -25.4%
≤30d 6 -4.0% -13.1% 50% 50% -25.4%
≤90d 6 -4.0% -13.1% 50% 50% -25.4%
all 6 -4.0% -13.1% 50% 50% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 50% -25.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 50% -32.5%
15% -29.0% 50% -39.0%
20% -36.0% 33% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$89 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $45 +$62 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $98 +$89 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $67 +$32 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records