Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7B 0x7ba0…0111 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,069 (-5%) realized −$1,989 · open +$920
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$484per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3,145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,412
7 days−$560
14 days−$2,397
30 days−$2,397
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$309
finance 13% −$1,763
other 2% −$21
tech 0% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -13.1% -21.3% 38% 19% -13.6%
≤30d 35 -10.5% -19.1% 40% 20% -22.4%
≤90d 35 -10.5% -19.1% 40% 20% -22.4%
all 35 -10.5% -19.1% 40% 20% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 20% -22.4%
10% -26.8% 11% -29.8%
15% -33.9% 6% -36.6%
20% -40.4% 6% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$622) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$206 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$3,145
Realized−$1,989
Unrealized+$920
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage11d
Avg bet$484
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? No 56¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,782 +$782 (+78%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? No 89¢ 100¢ $450 $503 +$53 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 85¢ 79¢ $400 $371 −$29 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? No 72¢ 92¢ $200 $256 +$56 (+28%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 70¢ 100¢ $130 $185 +$55 (+42%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? No 78¢ 84¢ $45 $49 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $104 −$54 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $305 +$25 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,159 −$872 -40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 18 $1,126 −$481 -43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $519 −$228 -44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $412 +$136 +33%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 16 $413 −$26 -6%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 16 $53 −$28 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $622 −$534 -86%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $306 +$26 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $972 −$31 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $347 +$13 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $105 −$100 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,022 −$31 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,552 +$785 +51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $127 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $448 +$57 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $554 +$814 +147%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $722 −$165 -23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $1,457 −$1,282 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $200 +$25 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$11 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,287 −$437 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $353 +$23 +7%
OKX IPO in 2026? Jun 09 $304 −$21 -7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $91 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $91 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5AM ET Jun 08 $51 +$5 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 08 $5 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 78¢ $46 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? SELL No 32¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 70¢ $134 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY No 72¢ $206 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 83¢ $204 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 60¢ $104 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 75¢ $308 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 45¢ $256 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 45¢ $331 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 44¢ $525 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 64¢ $518 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 47¢ $955 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 56¢ $520 32h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL No 50¢ $645 34h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY No 51¢ $31 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $458 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 86¢ $510 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 86¢ $612 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 86¢ $204 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 86¢ $15 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $305 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 91¢ $305 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $412 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 68¢ $387 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $105 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 45¢ $103 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 83¢ $97 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 84¢ $102 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $105 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,145.37 · official $3,147.77 (match) · 142 history records