Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7ba3…8d20 other 1669 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$467 (+1%) realized +$466 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1655W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day60.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$157
14 days−$754
30 days−$912
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$659
other 39% +$159
world 3% +$72
weather 1% +$5
tech 1% −$509
crypto 1% +$19
culture 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +19.9% +8.5% 100% 3% -7.6%
≤30d 1668 +5.7% -4.3% 99% 1% -10.6%
≤90d 1669 +5.7% -4.3% 99% 1% -10.6%
all 1669 +5.7% -4.3% 99% 1% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 1% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 1% -19.2%
15% -21.9% 1% -27.0%
20% -29.5% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$145 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$466
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1655 / 14
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1669 / 1669
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day60.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1669 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 12¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kai Havertz: 1+ shots on target Jun 21 $19 $0 +1%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target Jun 21 $26 $0 +1%
Deniz Undav: 3+ shots on target Jun 21 $26 $0 +1%
Yahia Fofana: 5+ saves Jun 21 $33 +$1 +2%
Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots on target Jun 21 $55 +$1 +1%
Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots on target Jun 21 $55 +$1 +1%
Yasin Ayari: 1+ shots on target Jun 21 $55 +$1 +1%
Nilson Angulo: 1+ shots Jun 21 $49 +$2 +3%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $350 +$3 +1%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $4 $0 +1%
Noa Lang: 1+ shots Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Alisson: 3+ saves Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Chiefs win the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific Grand Final? Jun 20 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $161 +$2 +1%
Will Chicago Wolves win American Hockey League? Jun 20 $90 +$2 +3%
Achraf Hakimi: 2+ shots Jun 20 $111 +$2 +2%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 20 $8 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: YNDX (-1.5) vs FORZE Esports (+1.5) Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $131 +$1 +1%
MLP St. Petersburg: Palm Beach Royals vs Columbus Sliders Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
CF Universidad de Chile to win the second half? Jun 19 $108 +$1 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs EDward Gaming (+3.5) Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Honor of Kings: Deep Cross Gaming vs King of Gamers Club (BO3) - Arena Jun 19 $109 +$1 +1%
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals Jun 19 $6 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: Seyfried (-1.5) vs Kozul (+1.5) Jun 18 $8 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: Kozul (-1.5) vs Seyfried (+1.5) Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Game Handicap: Polcanova (-1.5) vs Samara (+1.5) Jun 18 $8 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: Meshref (-1.5) vs Zeng (+1.5) Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: Akae (-1.5) vs Pesotska (+1.5) Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: Qin (-1.5) vs Akula (+1.5) Jun 18 $11 $0 +2%
Game Handicap: Fan (-1.5) vs Kim (+1.5) Jun 18 $39 $0 +1%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $144 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Game 5: Odd/Even Total Kills? Jun 18 $3 +$27 +900%
João Cancelo: 1+ shots Jun 18 $31 +$3 +8%
ITF Bolszewo: Oriana Gniewkowska vs Alena Kovackova Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Yoane Wissa: 2+ shots on target Jun 18 $29 $0 +1%
João Neves: 2+ shots Jun 18 $10 +$2 +24%
João Neves: 2+ shots on target Jun 18 $31 +$3 +8%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +900%
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Alexandrova Jun 17 $350 +$4 +1%
Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs eStar Pro (+1.5) Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Morega (-1.5) vs Boitan (+1.5) Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Game 2: Ends in Daytime? Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots on target Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill? Jun 17 $142 +$1 +1%
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill? Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Deniz Undav: 3+ shots on target BUY Yes 99¢ $26 1h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 99¢ $26 1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 99¢ $19 1h
Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 99¢ $55 1h
Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 99¢ $55 1h
Yahia Fofana: 5+ saves BUY Yes 98¢ $33 1h
Yasin Ayari: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 99¢ $55 1h
Nilson Angulo: 1+ shots BUY Yes 97¢ $49 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 99¢ $25 4h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 99¢ $99 5h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 99¢ $350 5h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 5h
Noa Lang: 1+ shots BUY No 96¢ $1 10h
Alisson: 3+ saves BUY Yes 99¢ $55 17h
Will Chiefs win the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific Grand Final? BUY No 98¢ $32 21h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $161 24h
Will Chicago Wolves win American Hockey League? BUY No 97¢ $90 27h
Achraf Hakimi: 2+ shots BUY Yes 98¢ $111 27h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Paris Gentle Mates 99¢ $8 31h
Game Handicap: YNDX (-1.5) vs FORZE Esports (+1.5) BUY FORZE Esports 99¢ $5 34h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 99¢ $99 36h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 99¢ $32 36h
MLP St. Petersburg: Palm Beach Royals vs Columbus Sliders BUY Palm Beach Royals 99¢ $99 36h
CF Universidad de Chile to win the second half? BUY Yes 99¢ $97 37h
CF Universidad de Chile to win the second half? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 37h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs EDward Gaming (+3.5) BUY EDward Gaming 99¢ $2 38h
Honor of Kings: Deep Cross Gaming vs King of Gamers Club (BO3) - Arena BUY King of Gamers Club 99¢ $109 46h
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $6 2d
Game Handicap: Seyfried (-1.5) vs Kozul (+1.5) BUY Kozul 99¢ $8 2d
Game Handicap: Kozul (-1.5) vs Seyfried (+1.5) BUY Seyfried 99¢ $99 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.20 · official $1.20 (match) · 3500 history records