Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7ba4…4f6b sports 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$880 (-23%) realized −$877 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate79%19W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$903
sports 6% +$22
other 3% +$14
crypto 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +8.8% -1.5% 90% 60% -1.9%
≤30d 20 +8.8% -1.5% 90% 60% -1.9%
≤90d 24 +0.2% -9.3% 79% 54% -56.3%
all 24 +0.2% -9.3% 79% 54% -56.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 54% -56.3%
10% -18.0% 33% -60.4%
15% -25.9% 8% -64.3%
20% -33.2% 4% -67.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$199 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$877
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses19 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage73d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Naomi Osaka 85¢ 74¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $35 +$4 +11%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 21 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$3 +29%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $26 +$4 +17%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $24 +$3 +11%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $22 +$1 +5%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 21 $22 $0 +2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $22 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$6 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $5 +$2 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 $0 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$4 +29%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 18 $2,070 +$74 +4%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 14 $444 −$444 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 12 $874 −$532 -61%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 12 $73 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $22 5m
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 85¢ $20 40m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close SELL Phantom 100¢ $0 41m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close SELL Phantom 98¢ $39 43m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 88¢ $35 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Nigma Galaxy 99¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner SELL Phantom 100¢ $13 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 94¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner BUY Phantom 77¢ $10 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $31 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 81¢ $21 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 75¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL ENERGYULTRA 99¢ $27 5h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ENERGYULTRA 96¢ $18 5h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ENERGYULTRA 72¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 100¢ $23 6h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 95¢ $22 6h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 98¢ $22 19h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL Cincinnati Reds 100¢ $22 20h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $22 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $13 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $14 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 88¢ $12 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $23 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $16 43h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.42 · official $37.42 (match) · 160 history records