Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bac…74c2 other 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate43%32W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$6
other 25% −$2
politics 25% $0
world 19% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.1% -6.7% 67% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 13 +126.0% +104.5% 46% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 54 +30.1% +17.7% 37% 6% -9.5%
all 75 +19.0% +7.7% 43% 8% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.7% 8% -10.0%
10% -2.6% 3% -18.6%
15% -12.0% 3% -26.5%
20% -20.6% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 43
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage531d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 73¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $40 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $4 $0 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $41 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $81 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $3 −$1 -16%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $39 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $67 −$1 -1%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $41 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $44 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $150 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $3 $0 +9%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $5 $0 -7%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $42 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $100 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $17 $0 +2%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 05 $2 $0 -7%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Apr 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $48 $0 +0%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Mar 28 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $40 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $7 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $34 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $6 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $1 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $39 24h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $0 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $1 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $2 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $39 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $40 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.93 · official $40.66 · 315 history records