Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bad…dadb crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+5%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day79.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$13
sports 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -6.8% -15.7% 48% 36% -13.3%
≤30d 42 -6.8% -15.7% 48% 36% -13.3%
≤90d 42 -6.8% -15.7% 48% 36% -13.3%
all 42 -6.8% -15.7% 48% 36% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 36% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 31% -21.6%
15% -31.1% 24% -29.2%
20% -37.9% 19% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day79.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $23 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +88%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$4 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records