Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:04:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7B 0x7baf…0d99 sports 32 markets active 5d ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$58 (+8%) realized +$69 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate74%23W / 8L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$21
14 days+$35
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$81
world 25% −$56
other 10% +$44
politics 3% −$20
culture 2% +$3
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +113.8% +93.5% 100% 100% +95.0%
≤30d 10 -3.2% -12.4% 60% 60% -21.9%
≤90d 23 +9.6% -0.8% 74% 70% -10.3%
all 31 +18.7% +7.4% 74% 71% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 71% -1.3%
10% -2.9% 55% -10.8%
15% -12.3% 39% -19.4%
20% -20.9% 35% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$30 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses23 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage145d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 48¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 +$8 +99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $25 +$5 +19%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 02 $21 +$14 +65%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 28 $17 +$3 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 28 $18 +$3 +16%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 13 $23 +$5 +23%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $21 +$13 +62%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 07 $15 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 07 $21 +$14 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 18? Apr 21 $15 +$2 +13%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 21 $15 +$28 +188%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $10 +$2 +23%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Apr 10 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Apr 10 $20 +$2 +11%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 30 $11 +$13 +117%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Mar 23 $17 +$7 +43%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Mar 23 $24 +$26 +108%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 20 $13 +$13 +104%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 20 $26 +$19 +72%
76ers vs. Trail Blazers Feb 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Hawks vs. Pacers Feb 07 $85 +$96 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $8 4d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $30 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 12d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $15 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $25 18d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 52¢ $14 27d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $20 27d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $21 32d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 29¢ $19 40d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 86¢ $18 40d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? BUY No 83¢ $17 44d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $20 44d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $25 47d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? BUY No 81¢ $23 53d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 61¢ $21 53d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY No 92¢ $15 69d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $21 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 72d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 34¢ $15 72d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 81¢ $10 80d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY No 30¢ $20 80d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu BUY Top Esports 33¢ $37 91d
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 90¢ $20 98d
Lakers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 46¢ $11 98d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 70¢ $17 122d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY No 48¢ $24 122d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $45 129d
Rockets vs. Hornets BUY Rockets 58¢ $26 133d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $13 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 62 history records