Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:22:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7B
0x7bb2…682c
politics · 78 markets active 15h ago
0.0score
−$126,623 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$139,568 · open +$13,713
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$140,569
Realized−$139,568
Unrealized+$13,713
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses38 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Open positions28
Markets (closed)97 / 78
Avg bet$5,415
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 28 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$164,964
7 days−$164,964
14 days−$146,152
30 days−$143,004
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 55¢ 79¢ $16,950 $24,127 +$7,178 (+42%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 55¢ 55¢ $21,392 $21,129 −$263 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $16,248 $16,821 +$573 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 23¢ 22¢ $11,031 $10,769 −$262 (-2%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 70¢ 86¢ $6,541 $8,061 +$1,520 (+23%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $6,660 $7,900 +$1,240 (+19%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 72¢ 77¢ $6,759 $7,292 +$533 (+8%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 53¢ 44¢ $5,300 $4,450 −$850 (-16%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 65¢ 88¢ $3,250 $4,375 +$1,125 (+35%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 84¢ $3,500 $4,225 +$725 (+21%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 83¢ 86¢ $3,942 $4,109 +$166 (+4%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 69¢ 77¢ $3,470 $3,827 +$357 (+10%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3,359 $3,744 +$385 (+11%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $3,950 $3,595 −$355 (-9%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2,780 $3,038 +$257 (+9%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 80¢ 94¢ $2,400 $2,816 +$416 (+17%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $2,750 $2,175 −$575 (-21%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 77¢ 89¢ $1,733 $1,993 +$260 (+15%)
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? No 92¢ 99¢ $1,848 $1,977 +$129 (+7%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No 31¢ 60¢ $930 $1,800 +$870 (+94%)
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $680 $1,000 +$320 (+47%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? No 75¢ 99¢ $354 $466 +$112 (+32%)
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? No 83¢ 96¢ $309 $356 +$47 (+15%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $163 $244 +$81 (+49%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $131 $144 +$13 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump talk to Jerome Powell in August? Jun 12 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
US recession in 2025? Jun 12 $13,943 −$18,615 -134%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Jun 12 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 12 $2,874 −$2,874 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3,140 −$3,140 -100%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Jun 12 $4,440 −$4,440 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? Jun 12 $308 −$308 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Jun 12 $3,936 −$3,936 -100%
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? Jun 12 $998 −$998 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 12 $574 −$574 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 12 $1,500 −$1,520 -101%
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jun 12 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August? Jun 12 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in August? Jun 12 $486 −$486 -100%
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday? Jun 12 $6,156 −$6,156 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m? Jun 12 $2,813 −$2,813 -100%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Jun 12 $730 −$730 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? Jun 12 $7,200 −$7,200 -100%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? Jun 12 $21,493 −$21,493 -100%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 12 $2,742 −$2,742 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $915 −$915 -100%
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026 Jun 12 $764 −$764 -100%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Jun 12 $718 −$718 -100%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Jun 12 $2,566 −$2,566 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Jun 12 $900 −$900 -100%
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Thursday? Jun 12 $1,870 −$1,870 -100%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? Jun 12 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15? Jun 12 $1,113 −$1,113 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in August? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $6,050 −$6,050 -100%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31? Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%? Jun 12 $680 −$680 -100%
Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani? Jun 12 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? Jun 12 $57,893 −$57,893 -100%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Jun 12 $6,808 −$6,977 -102%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jun 12 $27 +$1,321 +4974%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,945 −$1,945 -100%
Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? Jun 12 $1,887 −$1,887 -100%
30% EU tariff in effect by August 1? Jun 12 $492 −$492 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $9,820 +$16,636 +169%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $4,529 −$3,170 -70%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 02 $1,830 +$1,170 +64%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $4,445 +$555 +12%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Jun 02 $9,400 +$600 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $15,980 +$3,020 +19%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 28 $2,309 +$76 +3%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $2,000 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 45% −$3,040
politics 32% +$31,142
other 8% +$4,532
finance 6% +$1,294
economics 4% +$1,636
culture 3% +$5,500
tech 1% −$1,956
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $2,400 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $3,000 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $175 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $26 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $9 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $26 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $975 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $114 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $7 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $24 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $52 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $260 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $156 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $182 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $0 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $351 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $52 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $9 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -50.0% -54.8% 2% 2% -99.7%
≤30d 52 -34.9% -41.1% 17% 13% -64.7%
≤90d 79 -25.7% -32.8% 35% 27% -43.1%
all 97 -24.6% -31.8% 39% 27% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.8% 27% -35.9%
10% -38.3% 18% -42.1%
15% ← realistic here -44.3% 16% -47.7%
20% -49.7% 11% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140,568.67 · official $140,576.57 (match) · 3500 history records