Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bb2…74ec politics 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,232 (+1%) realized +$1,232 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%9W / 75L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$1,322per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$21
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$86
other 38% +$1,518
economics 4% −$5
crypto 1% +$6
culture 1% −$3
world 1% −$196
sports 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 -2.2% -11.5% 10% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 84 +1.8% -7.9% 11% 5% -8.5%
all 84 +1.8% -7.9% 11% 5% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 5% -8.5%
10% -16.7% 5% -17.3%
15% -24.7% 5% -25.3%
20% -32.1% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,616) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$6 · ×29.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.59 per $1 lost it wins $3.59
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$431
Realized+$1,232
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses9 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage78d
Avg bet$1,322
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $432 $431 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,412 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,221 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,200 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,432 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2,154 −$3 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $6,032 −$8 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 04 $402 +$2 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 04 $538 +$2 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 26 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,004 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 25 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,034 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $956 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,018 −$2 -0%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $2,468 −$3 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $32 +$13 +40%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2,962 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $2,623 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $1,568 −$2 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,580 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,453 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $1,606 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $1,692 −$2 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $1,681 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $1,598 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $1,609 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $4,639 −$5 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $2,806 −$3 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $1,504 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 13 $1,610 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $3,212 −$5 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 13 $1,636 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $1,644 −$5 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,523 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $432 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,410 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,412 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,059 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,061 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,219 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,221 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,198 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,200 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,334 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,335 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,429 10d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,432 10d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,273 11d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,275 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,030 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,032 12d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $659 12d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $660 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,054 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,056 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,069 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,071 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $700 17d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $701 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $458 19d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $458 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $402 21d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,031 22d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,033 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $431.49 · official $431.49 (match) · 261 history records