Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:17:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7B 0x7bb3…2682 world 168 markets active 22h ago coverage 342d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33,454 (+24%) realized +$23,010 · open +$10,444
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%76W / 87L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$831per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$32,785now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$14,265
30 days+$19,439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$33,708
other 7% −$1,463
politics 5% +$1,509
tech 1% −$219
sports 1% −$460
economics 0% +$32
crypto 0% −$190
finance 0% −$80
weather 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +48.5% +34.3% 50% 50% +65.7%
≤90d 29 +30.6% +18.2% 55% 52% +27.7%
all 163 -3.8% -13.0% 47% 39% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 39% +9.1%
10% -21.3% 35% -1.3%
15% -28.9% 31% -10.8%
20% -35.9% 27% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$611) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$667 vs −$325 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

342d coverage
Net worth$32,785
Realized+$23,010
Unrealized+$10,444
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses76 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)163 / 168
History coverage342d
Avg bet$831
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 46¢ 90¢ $15,306 $30,167 +$14,861 (+97%)
Will Trinity Tatum win Love Island USA Season 8? Yes 79¢ 82¢ $2,377 $2,475 +$98 (+4%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 12¢ $865 $71 −$794 (-92%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ $3,720 $70 −$3,650 (-98%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 36¢ $72 $1 −$71 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $3,243 +$6,757 +208%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4,355 +$8,646 +198%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,161 −$431 -37%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $7,541 −$707 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $192 +$131 +68%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $1,532 −$78 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,134 +$743 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $37 −$37 -100%
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? Jun 02 $26 −$9 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $5,577 +$4,423 +79%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 28 $2,880 −$1,771 -62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $6,264 −$1,178 -19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 26 $815 −$814 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $3,500 +$750 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 10? May 10 $23 +$7 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 08 $2,300 −$1,820 -79%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $5,041 −$3,859 -76%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 23 $1,705 −$1,705 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $361 +$513 +142%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $528 +$1,126 +213%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $350 −$350 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $1,500 +$800 +53%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 20? Apr 19 $160 +$8 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 16 $900 +$1,300 +144%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $4,525 +$10,475 +232%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $253 +$189 +75%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $319 +$181 +57%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31? Apr 05 $643 +$377 +59%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 05 $2,648 −$998 -38%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 18 $612 −$345 -56%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 14 $273 +$137 +50%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13? Mar 14 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $120 −$48 -40%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Mar 02 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026? Mar 01 $1,396 −$1,216 -87%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 01 $2,721 −$2,613 -96%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Mar 01 $112 −$112 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $1,299 −$1,099 -85%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $2,470 +$1,294 +52%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 28 $410 −$45 -11%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 19 $286 +$214 +75%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 27 $335 −$230 -69%
Will the announcers say "Superbowl" or "Super Bowl" during the Nationa Jan 18 $8 −$3 -32%
Will the announcers say "Ohio State" during the National College Footb Jan 18 $14 −$11 -81%
Will the announcers say "Wind" or "Windy" during the National College Jan 18 $22 −$9 -43%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? Jan 04 $27 −$27 -100%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Jan 04 $375 −$375 -100%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement? Jan 04 $139 −$139 -100%
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31? Jan 04 $155 −$155 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trinity Tatum win Love Island USA Season 8? SELL Yes 80¢ $1,863 21h
Will Trinity Tatum win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY Yes 79¢ $4,282 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $760 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,254 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,298 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $57 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $30 12d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $100 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $288 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $167 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $70 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $64 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $488 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $17 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,784.69 · official $32,784.69 (match) · 1476 history records