Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7bb4…6fb5 crypto 247 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$118 (+10%) realized +$124 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate77%163W / 50L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day39.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$171
7 days+$172
14 days+$163
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$7
sports 45% +$77
other 3% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +24.7% +12.9% 50% 42% +31.2%
≤30d 213 +9.4% -1.1% 77% 22% +6.3%
≤90d 213 +9.4% -1.1% 77% 22% +6.3%
all 213 +9.4% -1.1% 77% 22% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 22% +6.3%
10% ← realistic here -10.5% 15% -3.9%
15% -19.2% 13% -13.2%
20% -27.1% 12% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized+$124
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses163 / 50
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions34
Markets (closed)213 / 247
History coverage10d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day39.6
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Ignacio Buse 47¢ 100¢ $9 $19 +$10 (+113%)
ITF Blois: Yaroslava Bartashevich vs Sofya Lansere Yaroslava Bartashevich 46¢ 60¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+30%)
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jennifer Ruggeri 31¢ 38¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+23%)
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy Margaux Rouvroy 11¢ 36¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+233%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Felix Gill 71¢ 91¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+29%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Under 70¢ 68¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Martin Damm 39¢ 56¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+45%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 52¢ 48¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Anna Kalinskaya 27¢ 32¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Francisca Jorge 26¢ 60¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+133%)
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Milos Karol 27¢ 20¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 71¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Miomir Kecmanovic 60¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Elena Micic 38¢ 40¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 21¢ 22¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Geoffrey Blancaneaux 60¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Under 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Adrian Mannarino 66¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+51%)
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Zeynep Sonmez 49¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+50%)
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Gerard Campana Lee 22¢ 32¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+48%)
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Cosme de Ravel 41¢ 43¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Martin Krumich 66¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $7 −$2 -31%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $8 +$1 +10%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $9 +$47 +514%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $9 +$8 +89%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $9 −$3 -29%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $9 −$6 -66%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $6 +$4 +59%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $3 +$4 +147%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $9 −$6 -66%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $9 +$36 +387%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $9 −$1 -14%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $9 −$3 -33%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $9 +$2 +17%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $9 +$1 +9%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $9 −$1 -12%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $9 +$4 +39%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $9 +$9 +95%
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 16 $6 +$16 +265%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$1 +64%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $6 +$1 +18%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $6 +$1 +24%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $6 +$5 +87%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +17%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 +$2 +27%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 +$4 +109%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $6 −$1 -18%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 +$7 +164%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $6 −$3 -44%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 16 $6 +$80 +1285%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $10 −$6 -61%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 +$6 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $8 $0 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 58¢ $3 2m
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 66¢ $3 2m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 44¢ $3 3m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 21¢ $3 3m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 21¢ $3 3m
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge BUY Francisca Jorge 26¢ $3 3m
ITF Blois: Yaroslava Bartashevich vs Sofya Lansere BUY Yaroslava Bartashevich 40¢ $3 4m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 63¢ $3 4m
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 27¢ $3 5m
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Geoffrey Blancaneaux 60¢ $3 5m
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Milos Karol 23¢ $3 5m
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 28¢ $3 5m
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Milos Karol 22¢ $3 5m
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 70¢ $3 5m
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Geoffrey Blancaneaux 60¢ $3 5m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 62¢ $3 5m
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Cosme de Ravel 41¢ $3 5m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 39¢ $3 6m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 39¢ $3 6m
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan BUY Maxim Mrva 88¢ $3 6m
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy BUY Alevtina Ibragimova 92¢ $3 6m
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy BUY Margaux Rouvroy 11¢ $3 6m
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea BUY Jennifer Ruggeri 32¢ $3 6m
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 93¢ $3 6m
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea BUY Jennifer Ruggeri 31¢ $3 6m
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge BUY Elena Micic 54¢ $3 6m
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 49¢ $3 7m
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Gerard Campana Lee 22¢ $3 7m
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea BUY Jennifer Ruggeri 31¢ $3 7m
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Yanki Erel 53¢ $3 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.56 · official $261.56 (match) · 551 history records