trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 13 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 46% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 46% | 0% | -9.1% |
| all | 26 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 50% | 0% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.4% | 0% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -18.0% | 0% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -25.9% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 48¢ | 48¢ | $45 | $45 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 43¢ | 54¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+24%) |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 16 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 15 | $60 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 14 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 14 | $6 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $80 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $46 | +$2 | +5% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $41 | $0 | -1% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 08 | $26 | +$1 | +2% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 06 | $92 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $45 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 29 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $103K on May 23? | May 22 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | May 21 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Amazon buy TikTok? | May 10 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | May 08 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? | May 08 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th | May 07 | $15 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | May 06 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? | May 06 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | May 05 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 03 | $17 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Brad Garlinghouse attend the March 7 Crypto Summit? | Mar 11 | $17 | $0 | +1% |