Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bb7…5e97 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-10%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 47% -23.8%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 47% -23.8%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 47% -23.8%
all 15 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 47% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 47% -23.8%
10% -18.3% 47% -31.1%
15% -26.2% 40% -37.8%
20% -33.4% 27% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +217%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$9 +52%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$8 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 −$3 -26%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $38 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $12 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $16 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 95¢ $6 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 4d
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 60¢ $7 5d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 5d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.23 · official $37.23 (match) · 29 history records