Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bba…6f17 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%37W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$1
other 20% $0
tech 13% $0
politics 10% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 48 -1.9% -11.3% 77% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses37 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage500d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? May 05 $52 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $30 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 04 $43 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jul 02 $15 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 02 $23 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Kim Dong-yeon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will Oregon win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $35 $0 -1%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Mar 21 $58 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Francois-Philippe Champagne be the next leader of the Canadian Li Feb 17 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 61d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? BUY No 99¢ $52 63d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 91d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $29 91d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $30 93d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $36 122d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $17 151d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $8 182d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $12 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $37 183d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $48 211d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 240d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $21 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 242d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 271d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? BUY No 100¢ $17 272d
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $32 274d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $8 302d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $15 303d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 100¢ $36 303d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $9 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $43 334d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 365d
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $23 367d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.84 · official $59.84 (match) · 104 history records