Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7bbb…5bdc politics 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$135 (-0%) realized −$134 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,553per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$19
14 days+$21
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$108
other 42% −$72
economics 4% −$9
sports 4% +$121
crypto 1% −$111
tech 1% −$2
culture 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 44 +6.5% -3.6% 11% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 106 +1.8% -7.9% 11% 8% -9.6%
all 106 +1.8% -7.9% 11% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 8% -9.6%
10% -16.7% 8% -18.3%
15% -24.8% 8% -26.2%
20% -32.1% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,628) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$4 · ×4.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage84d
Avg bet$1,553
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $450 $449 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,876 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $2,208 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $966 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,477 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,916 −$6 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $4,438 −$7 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,490 −$5 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,240 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $2,773 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,022 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,455 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $72 +$70 +97%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $60 −$60 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $152 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $2,940 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,645 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $1,094 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $4,067 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $3,911 −$6 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,211 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,209 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,311 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,052 −$2 -0%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,706 −$4 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 23 $39 +$52 +134%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $4,082 −$6 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,259 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,947 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,498 −$2 -0%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 21 $44 +$46 +105%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $26 +$10 +40%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $2,919 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $2,834 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $1,331 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $2,738 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $229 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 2h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $845 47h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $846 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,039 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,041 2d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,076 2d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,077 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $964 3d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $966 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $994 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $996 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,053 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,055 4d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $823 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $824 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $450 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,196 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,198 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,143 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,145 10d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,538 10d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,540 10d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,238 10d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,240 10d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,312 11d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,314 11d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,322 11d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,324 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,186 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $448.86 · official $448.86 (match) · 333 history records