Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:59:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7B 0x7bbd…6b61 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$1
other 23% +$2
sports 9% $0
politics 9% +$1
finance 8% +$1
crypto 6% $0
tech 4% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -8.4%
all 33 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -8.5%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.04 per $1 lost it wins $15.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage473d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $55 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $60 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $58 +$2 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $2 $0 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $58 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $51 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 -15%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 15 $18 $0 +1%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $6 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 25–May 2? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 06 $20 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 01 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Mar 31 $20 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 31 $19 $0 +0%
Egypt/Jordan agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before April? Mar 29 $19 $0 +0%
PartyDAO airdrop in Q1 2025? Mar 28 $19 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 27 $1 $0 +0%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $17 +$1 +9%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $17 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 12 $17 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $32 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $12 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $44 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $55 18h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $60 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $60 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $60 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $58 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $1 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $2 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $17 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $21 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $15 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $58 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $17 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $35 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $51 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 28d
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? BUY No 94¢ $1 363d
Will Oracle buy TikTok? SELL No 97¢ $6 377d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.85 · official $31.85 (match) · 92 history records