Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7B
0x7bbe…b95e
weather · 250 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$85 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$74 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses74 / 170
Open positions6
Markets (closed)244 / 250
History coverage19d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 244 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$13
14 days+$22
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Yes 54¢ 100¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+85%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or below on May 25? No 34¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 25? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 3? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 28? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on May 28? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 1? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 30? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 4? No 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 1? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 7? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 6? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 31? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 10? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 8? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 2? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 4? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 7? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$16 +395%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$5 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$11 +273%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$5 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$6 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$6 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$9 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$3 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 09 $12 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$11 +269%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$6 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$3 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$5 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$5 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$3 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 07 $4 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 37m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 6¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 46¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 65¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? SELL Yes 97¢ $15 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? SELL Yes 72¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 27h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 3¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 31h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 11? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 60¢ $4 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -3.0% -12.2% 33% 33% -12.8%
≤30d 244 +3.9% -6.0% 30% 30% -15.0%
≤90d 244 +3.9% -6.0% 30% 30% -15.0%
all 244 +3.9% -6.0% 30% 30% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 30% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 30% -23.2%
15% -23.2% 28% -30.6%
20% -30.7% 27% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.37 · official $11.37 (match) · 462 history records